As is so often the case, I believe that John got it right, in his analysis.

To put it into some perspective -- just a couple of days ago, I was chatting with a true expert, who has been in the vintage watch market for a long time. He stated that the run up in prices that we saw for the Autavias in 2016 and into 2017 was faster and more extreme than any run up in prices that he had seen for any watch, ever. Yes, the Rindts and Big Subs were doing fine, and then all of a sudden, the Big Subs jumped from $5,000 to $25,000 to $100,000, and a normal Rindt was selling in the $40,000 range. The law of supply and demand then came into play, and everyone found a Rindt in the drawer, and tried to sell it for $30,000 to $40,000, and then we had too much supply, and not enough demand. So prices fell.

Also, when you look at TAG Heuer introducing the new Autavia in 2017, you realize that this publicity and various events and promotions supported the market for the vintage Autavias. Then there was the Heuer Parade one year ago -- successful in some ways, a failure in others.

I think the market is relatively stable right now. As people have pointed out -- the rare ones in exceptionally good condition are still achieving good prices, but the ordinary eBay stuff is struggling. And this is as it should be.

Yes, I have some concerns about some of the pieces in the November auctions . . . the ones that do not belong in a fancy catalog for a high end auction . . . but we will see how it goes.

As so many others have said -- enjoy them when they are on your wrist or even in your safe, and we can look elsewhere for "investments".

Jeff

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

: When the price of a collectable goes up as much and as fast as
: Autavia prices went up we all know the market will change. It
: happens with watches. It happens with cars. It happens with Art.
: It happens with all collectibles.

: When somebody publicly buys a collectable...like an all lume 2446
: for 20 times what seemed normal just yesterday, people start to
: think their "similar" stuff is worth that much. Stuff
: comes out of the wood work. It may end up that some of the stuff
: that comes out on the market is actually worth that much. Demand
: may actually be there for a certain amount of time and for the
: really good stuff. Long time collectors are stunned that Rolex
: 1675 GMTs are worth 3 or 4 times as much now as they were not
: that long ago....but they are only worth 3 or 4 times as much. A
: few years ago that 2446 all lume may have been worth 5 grand on
: a really good day....then it went for 20 times as much. To think
: that is sustainable or to think that crummy examples were
: actually worth that much is to not understand how markets work.

: Your stuff is only worth a real amount on the day you sell it. All
: it is worth on every other day is the pleasure it brings you.

: Sorry if I ranted,

: JohnCote