: To my way of thinking, it all comes down to the "survival
: rate" of these watches. A survival rate of five percent to
: 10 percent seems about right. So if we see 20 to 30 today, my
: guess is that fewer than 300 were made.

: But this is all guesswork, in the absence of any production
: records.

Jeff,

I think the survival rate is way higher than 10%. What I think is that the collector community may know about 10% of some of these more popular executions but that there are way more of them out in "civilian" (non nerd) hands. I do agree with your production conclusions so I guess I just don't agree with how you arrive at them. My bet is that closer to 30-40% of these vintage watches still exist somewhere. Anyway, one of the reasons for me to think/hope that my survival number are more correct is that if gives me hope of finding watches in the wild.