: I've not been in the market for a watch recently, and don't really
: "watch" prices as some of you do, so my comments are
: more anecdotal impressions than careful observations and
: certainly don't qualify as analysis.

: What do I believe as some base points from which to observe how the
: markets have changed:

: >> mechanical watches are largely divorced from quartz
: watches, with markedly higher prices that can only be justified
: by enthusiasts
: >> a luxury priced quartz watch is an oxymoron in my view,
: and I tend to ignore the entire class of watches as economic
: ignorance
: >> vintage watches are markedly less expensive than their
: modern counterparts unless there is a very high desirability
: factor due to rarity or history
: >> gold prices have some limited effect on watch prices, with
: new gold watches being wildly overpriced and this overpricing,
: while much lessened, continues somewhat in the vintage market,
: particularly when gold prices are high
: >> watch collecting today is largely the realm of middle aged
: well-to-do males with disposable income with a passion for
: mechanicals and is largely rooted in the twin bases of vintage
: watches and dive/tool watches; everything else is a minor
: offshoot

:

So breaking Jim's questions down a bit into components:

: ## What does two "rare" watches showing up at the same
: time imply about the state of the markets?

: ## Has the economics of watch collecting changed in a significant
: way?

: I suspect the value/prices of the top 1-2% of truly collectible
: watches have changed little at this point. But this group is
: things that are truly rare and truly desirable to a sufficiently
: large enough group of collectors.

: Collectible watches that appeal to only a small segment of the
: collecting population will have suffered in price. I suspect the
: Maddox Speedmaster may be in this class, because knowledge and
: enthusiasm for that model is not widespread among all
: collectors.

: Some of our collecting brethren have suffered economic downturns
: personally and are selling the pieces they do not consider part
: of the core of their collection. I have not yet seen any
: "core pieces" on the market. I think the guys selling
: the Maddox Speedies are selling non-core pieces in which they
: have a lot of money or which they think they can get money out
: of easily.

: Watch dealers and watch flippers have suffered a sharp decline in
: turnover. No one is casually buying watches for the fun of it,
: because they know they may not be able to easily resell the
: piece.

: I expect to see fewer vintage watches for sale, more scams, fewer
: watches of good quality and more of the stuff that just misses
: the mark -- because it is still around because it hasn't sold.

: Over $20,000 new and vintage watches are still selling the same. As
: one collector remarked, "I'm not as rich as I was, but I'm
: still rich." Those watches were sold to people for whom
: $20k is pocket change.

: Under $20,000 new watches are not selling well and will continue to
: not sell well. The market is not coming back. Prices at which
: new watches are sold will continue to decline.

: I think we may be in danger of watch collecting as we know it
: ending. The primary collecting age group is now focused on
: having enough money for retirement, if not for the next mortgage
: and doesn't have money with which to "play with
: watches". The next generation was not invested in
: mechanical watch collecting in the same way our generation is.
: That generation largely can't afford the watches. I suspect ten
: years from now the market for mechanical watches will be
: considerably smaller than what it was two years ago, and prices
: and offerings will be much less extravagant and excessive.

: But I could be wrong . . .

: Sam

I don't believe you are wrong, Sam. Take a look at the latest AQ auction, around 60% of the lots failed to meet the estimates. And a very small percentage
finished above. I also believe these estimates are intentionally low. On the other hand, there are some good pieces to be had, at a very attractive price.
Another advantage is the fact one doesn't have to make an immediate decision when purchasing, chances are that watch you've been jonesing for is still going
to be for sale weeks after being posted on the various sales forums. You are also correct about people's retirement, I know that right now, I'm a hell of
a lot more concerned about my retirement savings than my watch collection, or the watch market in general. OH, and don't even get me started on the economic
stimulus, the budget or the bank bailouts............David