: I've not been in the market for a watch recently, and don't really
: "watch" prices as some of you do, so my comments are
: more anecdotal impressions than careful observations and
: certainly don't qualify as analysis.

: What do I believe as some base points from which to observe how the
: markets have changed:

: >> mechanical watches are largely divorced from quartz
: watches, with markedly higher prices that can only be justified
: by enthusiasts
: >> a luxury priced quartz watch is an oxymoron in my view,
: and I tend to ignore the entire class of watches as economic
: ignorance
: >> vintage watches are markedly less expensive than their
: modern counterparts unless there is a very high desirability
: factor due to rarity or history
: >> gold prices have some limited effect on watch prices, with
: new gold watches being wildly overpriced and this overpricing,
: while much lessened, continues somewhat in the vintage market,
: particularly when gold prices are high
: >> watch collecting today is largely the realm of middle aged
: well-to-do males with disposable income with a passion for
: mechanicals and is largely rooted in the twin bases of vintage
: watches and dive/tool watches; everything else is a minor
: offshoot

:

So breaking Jim's questions down a bit into components:

: ## What does two "rare" watches showing up at the same
: time imply about the state of the markets?

: ## Has the economics of watch collecting changed in a significant
: way?

: I suspect the value/prices of the top 1-2% of truly collectible
: watches have changed little at this point. But this group is
: things that are truly rare and truly desirable to a sufficiently
: large enough group of collectors.

: Collectible watches that appeal to only a small segment of the
: collecting population will have suffered in price. I suspect the
: Maddox Speedmaster may be in this class, because knowledge and
: enthusiasm for that model is not widespread among all
: collectors.

: Some of our collecting brethren have suffered economic downturns
: personally and are selling the pieces they do not consider part
: of the core of their collection. I have not yet seen any
: "core pieces" on the market. I think the guys selling
: the Maddox Speedies are selling non-core pieces in which they
: have a lot of money or which they think they can get money out
: of easily.

: Watch dealers and watch flippers have suffered a sharp decline in
: turnover. No one is casually buying watches for the fun of it,
: because they know they may not be able to easily resell the
: piece.

: I expect to see fewer vintage watches for sale, more scams, fewer
: watches of good quality and more of the stuff that just misses
: the mark -- because it is still around because it hasn't sold.

: Over $20,000 new and vintage watches are still selling the same. As
: one collector remarked, "I'm not as rich as I was, but I'm
: still rich." Those watches were sold to people for whom
: $20k is pocket change.

: Under $20,000 new watches are not selling well and will continue to
: not sell well. The market is not coming back. Prices at which
: new watches are sold will continue to decline.

: I think we may be in danger of watch collecting as we know it
: ending. The primary collecting age group is now focused on
: having enough money for retirement, if not for the next mortgage
: and doesn't have money with which to "play with
: watches". The next generation was not invested in
: mechanical watch collecting in the same way our generation is.
: That generation largely can't afford the watches. I suspect ten
: years from now the market for mechanical watches will be
: considerably smaller than what it was two years ago, and prices
: and offerings will be much less extravagant and excessive.

: But I could be wrong . . .

: Sam

Sam

Alot of what you say makes sense but you are being too downbeat. Everything is cyclical, except Gordon Bwons boom economy of course ;-)
Watch values will come back but they need to go through a period of some pain, the younger generation will collect, i see no evidence that they are not beginning to do so and the cheaper prices of today and tomorrow will encourage them to do so.

Just my opinion mind...

Rich