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Re: Dec 5, 2007 Antiquorum auction Joe K's post
In Response To: Re: Dec 5, 2007 Antiquorum auction ()

: Hi Sam,
: I posted a quick analysis of the results on
: WUSOF.
: I would do the same here but still have not
: figured out the format...

Here is Joe K's analysis repeated here --

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Here is a brief analysis of the results of the most recent AQ auction.

I am just presenting some initial thoughts to provoke discussion.



First, the extracted information from the AQ database (Only Omega wristwatches from the 12/05/07 auction in NYC)







I am interested in assessing the differences between the final sale prices and the estimates. Regardless of whether the estimates were correct or not, lets assume that AQ assigned what they think is a fair market value for each lot (I know this could be argued....). The lots were classified into 4 groups based on the estimate and final sale price: Within the estimate (In range), above, below or no sale (N/S).



I presented the data in 2 charts. One in which the 18% commission is included and one where it is not. Personally, I think the comission is not part of the value of the watch and should be omitted. It is also not included in the pre-auction estimate. I will therefore only refer to the chart without commission.







I think what we can see is that w/out the commission, most of the watches sold at or below the estimate (65%- including the watches not sold. These are an open question but likely they did not sell since the reserve was not met and we can assume the reserve is set within the estimate range). Is this telling us prices are starting to trend down from the Omegamania levels? Are the estimates too high?



I did not have a chance to do a through analysis but it also appears that most of the lots that sold above estimate , sold within 20% above the high end...



Comments anyone? or did I already bore you to death with this

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I disagree somewhat with one of Joe's assumptions. He states regarding the commission or buyers premium -- "It is also not included in the pre-auction estimate." Antiquorum always presents their prices with the commission and that is what you have to pay. Their comparison to the preauction estimate makes no adjustment.

Thus the bidder should bid less than the estimate by the 18% buyers premium in order to not exceed the estimated price.

The auction overall did not (I think) do well, with 15% of the watches not sold and the overall prices of watches sold just below 20% over the estimate.

I count 8 of 46 Omega watches not sold or 17%, as did Joe, consistent with the overall auction result of 15%.

I think this was a poorly run auction, with many estimates set incorrectly, a poorly timed mid-week auction in holiday season and relatively poorly promoted. I am on Antiquorum's mailing lists and first heard of this auction 10 days beforehand.

Thus I find this auction inconclusive of any trend in pricing. But we can hope things have at least stablized . . .

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