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Deflation is your best friend
In Response To: Will it ever happen that... ()

Vintage fakes and frankens started to seriously appear in the mid-90s with the first Rolex Ovettos and Daytonas (especially Paul Newman): from then on the fakes market - following the prices boom of the "real" vintage market - was on a roll for many models. Which models? The most popular ones and those that reached a price level where it made sense to start making fakes - or assembling fake parts together with original parts - on a regular basis.

What are the best weapons against fakers then? An active and liquid market but most of all, if it still makes sense to make recurrent copies of vintage models above a certain price trigger, your best friend is deflation, i.e. the fact that the market stays below that particular price area that raises the attentions of fakers. This is clearly a paradox, but would you have heard of fake Monacos 7 years ago? No? You see?

A stable and widely available knowledge base is another weapon (although for collectors and fakers as well): I personally believe that the Heuers’ knowledge base is not stable enough - yet.

Provenance is a good thing only if you have a fairly large choice of trusted sellers: if you have only a few ones the only effect you get is a two tier market, rising prices and speculation in the first tier and again the arrival of fakers. Not good for anyone

: I have been wondering about it a for a while and would like the
: input of the others. As, this may be happening sooner or later
: with one of our beloved models.
: What I am talking about? I am talking about the steady rising of
: prices for some models to such an extent that they become of
: interest to the professional makers of Replicas.

: Now with Replica I am not talking about a Monaco with redone dial,
: or some Cartavia Franken.
: I guess we have all already seen what i mean here. Take for example
: the vintage Rolex Daytona which is available in a near to
: perfect copies. Hard to distinguish from the real one for
: laymen. Until you open it up and see the cheap calibre or study
: the crystal looking for the tiny Rolex crown which has been
: lasered into it.

: Well, with 1133b's at levels between 7000 and 8000 Euros, PVD's
: between 15.000 and 20.000, there will surely be some
: "inventive" minds sooner or later who will decide to
: make replicas of these types. Maybe also Sifferts.And this would
: mean fake cases, fake dials, hands etc. This would open up a
: new, not so bright, era

: I do not think there will be many obstacles for those people who do
: this.For sure, if prices go up further. These watches mostly
: come from low income countries where labour is cheap and the
: level of craftmanship is still high.

: How see others see this?Or is this un unlikely scenario?

: Ron

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